Primetime Fall TV Series - It's the Returning Shows That Count Most

As the new TV season approaches, it is understandable that most of the discussion centers around the new shows.  How will ABC's Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family perform compared to CBS's Hawaii Five-O and The Defenders, or NBC's The Event and Undercovers, or FOX's Lonestar?

More significant to each network's ultimate success, however, is how well its returning series perform.  Why?  Two basic reasons.  First, there are simply more returning shows than new shows (69 vs. 27 this fall).  Second, when a new show flops, it's usually not on for more than half a season, and it's often replaced by a show that does better.  When a returning show starts to decline, it usually slides for a while before it's finally canceled, and more often than not, it's replaced by a show that doesn't do as well.

Much more important to FOX than its three new fall series, for example, is how well American Idoldoes without SImon at the judges table.  This could impact whether the network finishes 1st among adults 18-49 regardless of how its new series rate.

CBS will benefit by new dramas, Hawaii Five-O, The Defenders, or Blue Bloods, becoming successes.  But even more important to the network's fortunes will be how the moves of Survivorfrom Thursday to Wednesday, Big Bang Theory from Monday to Thursday, CSI: Miami from Monday to Sunday, and CSI: NY from Wednesday to Friday work out.  Equally as important will be whether NCIS, The Good Wife, and The Mentalist hold their current audience levels.

ABC can certainly use a new hit with something like Detroit 1-8-7, No Ordinary Family, or My Generation, but at least as important will be whether or not Grey's Anatomy, Private Practice, and Desperate Housewives continue to decline, or whether the new lineup of Dancing With the Stars (looks good) draws as big an audience as last season.

Only NBC, which has fewer regular scripted-series successes, is relying more on its new series, such as The Event, Undercovers, Chase, Law & Order: LA, and Outlaw. 

Even with CW, while Hellcats and Nikita performing well will help, just as important will be the performance of 90210, Gossip Girls, America's Next Top Model, and Vampire Diaries.

 

Comments

[BIll G]

"Much more important to FOX than its three new fall series, for example, is how well American Idol does without SImon at the judges table. This could impact whether the network finishes 1st among adults 18-49 regardless of how its new series rate."

Surely you mean "whether the network finishes 1st among adults 18-49 (if you disregard the boost to their ratings from the Super Bowl)"

With the Super Bowl this season, there is *no* chance Fox falls into second place for A18-49 this season.

Next season's another story.

[Steve Sternberg]

Hi Bill-

Perhaps I should have said "among regular programs." Although if Idol does happen to fall apart (let's say lose half its audience), the Super Bowl will not necessarily push FOX into 1st place. Keep in mind, Idol typcally accounts for about 10% of FOX's full-season telecast hours, but 30% of its adult 18-49 rating points. But you're probably correct about the net not being in danger this season.

Steve

[Rich]

I am reminded of your frequent questioning about why the networks don't cross promote. I wonder the same especially since they already do so by having stars from other networks appear on the various late night talk shows.

[Rick]

Perhaps the ministry of inoftmarion should use play acts such as this to communicate with the dumbed down Americano and assorted illegal resident population to advise them that the free money is over, and its time to return to their country of legal status before such barristers seek them out with their lawsuits and deputies that serve them that may just get a two-fer and be able to bust them and deport them after trial.When you are a permanant liiegal tourist from Mexico, you had to just love the no doc mortgage system of the bubble. But now, "!si se vuelvamos!"

[Patryk]

It's an OK show, but the freakin' soaobpx speeches are ridiculous. No judge in the country would let trial lawyers pontificate during a trial like they do on BL! A typical judge would say something like: Excuse me, counselor is there a QUESTION in there somewhere? OR Counselor, if you want to TESTIFY, then get yourself called as a witness! ------------------------------------You mean that in real life they don't catch and try a murderer in less than an hour?!? Gee, thanks for setting us straight!