The Sternberg Report

Predicting New TV Series Hits and Misses

We are now about a month into the season, so it's time to do something most pundits shy away from - namely, looking back on how my predictions are playing out.

Here's a list of all the new broadcast shows that have been canceled. and what we said about them in our Fall TV Preview report.

Charlie's Angels (ABC) - As much as we wanted to like the pilot, we just couldn't.  It's not just that it may seem cheesy to today's audience, but none of the Angels had any charisma. Prediction right on.

How to be a Gentleman (CBS) - Pilot was pleasant enough.  Should do about the same as virtually any comedy CBS chooses to follow The Big Bang Theory.  Could be hurt by FOX's X Factor.  Prediction pretty close.

Free Agents (NBC) - This may be the worst comedy pilot we've seen in the past 25 years.  The writing was bad and the cast had no chemistry.  So bad, it makes the canceled Outsourced seem like brilliant comedy.  Prediction right on.

The Playboy Club (NBC) - Pilot was nice to look at but surprisingly not fun to watch.  Makes you realize how difficult it really is to do a stylized period piece like Mad Men.  Prediction right on.

Here's what we said about some shows that might be in trouble.

Pan Am (ABC) - ABC should nourish this drama - the pilot was excellent.  Should do better once the football season ends.  We hope it lasts that long.  Prediction right on.

A Gifted Man (CBS) - In this very weak time period CBS is placing its weakest show.  Can it beat Chuck?  Maybe.  Would that make it a success?  No.  Prediction right on.

Whitney (NBC) - The star is appealing, but she has no chemistry with her co-star.  The writing in the pilot was just plain bad, which is not a promising sign going forward.  Prediction right on.

Prime Suspect (NBC) -Maria Bello has charisma, the supporting cast has potential, and the show looks like a winner.  NBC needs to heavily promote this one.  Prediction may have missed.

Here are the shows that are currently successful, and what we said about them before the season began.

New Girl (FOX) - This is the best new comedy on the schedule.  The show has a very appealing cast.  Prediction right on.

Suburgatory (ABC) - Sandwiched  between The Middle and Modern Family, this one has potential.  The pilot was good.  Its fate rests largely on whether it can build on its lead-in audience.  Prediction right on.

2 Broke Girls (CBS) - The pilot was quite funny.  This female odd couple should fit in with CBS's Monday comedies, but we're not sure it can be maintained on a weekly basis.  Prediction pretty close. 

Most of the remaining new series are not yet clear hits or misses.  FOX's Terra Nova, CBS's Person of Interest, and ABC's Revenge look promising.  We were high on all three, with some caveats based mostly on questions concerning how the shows would be executed from week to week.

Fall TV New Series Part 2 - The Good and the Almost Good

In Part 1, I talked about the new series pilots that I thought were bad (and very bad) and those I thought were disappointing.  Part 2 takes a look at not the series that I'm predicting will all be hits, but rather those I liked and think have potential (if only their host network promotes them properly and gives them time). 

As I say at least a few times every season, it's much easier to predict a flop than a success.  The big-time hits almost always come out of nowhere and surprise all the pundits.

Here are the new shows I think are the best of the new crop of fall series.

The Good

Revenge (ABC Wednesday 10-11)

Good old fashioned soap opera with a twist of revenge.  Large-scale soaps have not worked in recent years, but this one has potential.  Good cast with Emily Van Camp as the women who moves to the Hamptons to get revenge on the woman (Madeline Stowe) and her friends who ruined her family when she was a kid.

How this will be stretched over the course of the season is key. May make a better mini-series than weekly series.  Following a weak lead-in (Happy Endings), and being up against CSI and Law & Order: SVU, will make it tough to make headway.

Once Upon a Time (ABC, Sunday 8-9)

Fairy tales and the modern world collide, in this innovative and fun fantasy series focusing on a young woman who may or may not be the missing daughter of Snow White and Prince Charming - you see, the evil Queen cast a spell banishing them and other fairy tale characters to the real world with no memory of who they really are, and...

In a time period that strangely has no competing dramas, I hope this finds an audience.  It's one of the few dramas that can be watched by and with the whole family.

Pan Am (ABC, Sunday 10-11)

ABC should nourish this one.  The cast (including Christina Ricci and Kelli Garner) is excellent.  Full of sexy entanglements, handsome pilots, gorgeous stewardesses, and the cold war, there seem to be numerous juicy storylines to tap.  The pilot was real good.

Person of Interest (CBS, Thursday 9-10)

The pilot was compelling - Jim Calviezel is a former CIA covert operative recruited by a mysterious billionaire (Lost's Michael Emerson) to prevent violent crimes by using their own brand of vigilante justice.  CBS is so high on this one, it moved CSI to another night to make room.

Prime Suspect (NBC, Thursday 10-11)

Maria Bello is charismatic as a female homicide detective transferred to a new precinct where the fraternity of male cops is not very accepting.  She will, of course, gradually win them over.  The supporting cast, led by Aidan Quinn, is also very good.  The pilot started off slowly, but it grew on me as it progressed.

 Terra Nova (FOX, Monday 8-9)

The pilot was excellent. It set up the premise and introduced the major characters pretty quickly. Has the makings of a great mini-series, but we'll need to wait and see if it makes a good weekly series. This type of show can develop a very loyal niche audience - appealing to a broader base is more difficult for a sci-fi series. I think this definitely has the potential - as long as the special effects are used to enhance the story, not the other way around.

New Girl (FOX, Tuesday 9-9:30) 

This is the best new comedy of the season, and it's getting the enviable post-Gleetime slot.  Zooey Deschanel is perfect in the role of a young woman becomes roommates with three single guys.  Along with her childhood girlfriend, the five of them form a dysfunctional family.  One caveat, however, is that much of what made the pilot funny, won't exist by episode 2.  So whether the comedy can be maintained on a weekly basis remains to be seen.

 Secret Circle (CW, Thursday 9-10)

Witches and bitches will fit in just fine following Vampire Diaries.  New girl in town discovers that she is not only a witch, but part of a secret coven - and, of course, the key to unlocking a centuries-old battle between good and evil.

The Almost Good 

Last Man Standing (ABC, Tuesday 8-8:30)

Tim Allen will try to recapture the magic he had in this time slot with Home Improvement.  He plays a similar character.  The pilot was funny, but the show would have a better chance if it wasn't up against NCIS and Glee.

2 Broke Girls (CBS, Monday 8:30-9)

Kat Dennings and Beth Behrs are a female odd couple.  The pilot, which focused on their meeting for the first time, was funny, but I'm not sure it can be maintained on a weekly basis.  It should fit in well with CBS's Monday comedies, but sitcoms have been interchangeable here.

 Hart of Dixie (CW, Monday 9-10)

Hard to buy Rachel Bilson as a cardio-thoracic surgeon.  But when she inherits a medical practice in a small town filled with quirky characters, this fish out of water story does have some charm.  Seems like a good family drama, but not really compatible with its Gossip Girl lead-in.

Ringer (CW, Tuesday 9-10)

  Fans of Buffy the Vampire Slayer will tune in for Sarah Michelle Geller in her return to TV after a seven year absence.  They may not stay, however, when they see how different her role is here.

Her portrayal of a woman on the run, who assumes the life of her wealthy identical twin, whose seemingly idullic life is just as dangerous as her own, is compelling.  I'm reserving judgment until I see a few more episodes.

Fall TV New Series Part 1 - The Bad and The Disappointing

My friends and family think its cool that I get to see all the new series pilots before they air on television.  It actually is pretty cool, but it's not always fun.  That's because I have to watch them all - the good, the bad, and the very bad.

This three part series of blogs is not my predictions for hits and misses, but rather which new series pilots I liked, which have potential (but were disappointing), and which were just plain bad.  You may be able to figure out by my comments which I think will succeed.  It's much easier to pick flops (or modest successes).  The big-time hits almost always come out of nowhere and surprise the pundits.

I'm going to start with the bad.  And not just the bad... 

The Very Bad

Free Agents (NBC, Wednesday 8:30-9)

 This may well be the worst pilot I have seen in my nearly 30 years of evaluating TV series.  I'm surprised NBC would schedule something like this at 8:30, when kids are likely to be in the room.  I was embarrassed to watch it with my wife and 12-year-old son, and turned it off after 5 minutes to watch later by myself.  It didn't get better. 

The cast had no chemistry, the writing was bad, and the whole pilot just seemed like one long crude joke.  It was so bad it made the canceled (and dismal) Outsourced seem like brilliant comedy.

I Hate My Teenage Daughter (FOX Wednesday 9:30-10)

I hated the daughters and hated the moms.  There wasn't much to like about this sitcom.  It will follow FOX's new The X Factor, so it may initially do better than it deserves to, but whatever benefit it gets from its lead-in probably won't last long.

 The Disappointing

Charlie's Angels (ABC, Thursday 8-9)

As much as I wanted to like this one, I just couldn't.  It's not just that the pilot seemed kind of cheesy, it's also that none of the Angels had any charisma.  I also didn't like the new (younger, hotter) Bosley.

Other than introducing the term "jiggle TV" and "T & A" to the television lexicon, the original Charlie's Angels did actually have some social significance.  This version just seems unintentionally campy.  That doen't mean that people won't tune in.

The Playboy Club (NBC, Monday 10-11)

The pilot was nice to look at but surprisingly not fun to watch.  Makes you realize how difficult it is to produce a stylized period piece such as Mad Men.  Cast members had to sign a nudity clause, so we'll probably see some skin going forward, but that will only help if the show itself gets better. 

The name should get some viewer sampling, so we'll need a few episodes to see where the ratings settle.

Whitney (NBC, Thursday 9:30-10)

Whitney Cummings clearly has star potential, so it's too bad this comedy does not have hit potential. There is no chemistry between her and her boyfriend (Chris D'Elia), and the writing (at least in the pilot) was just plain bad.  Give her a better show and she will shine.

Up All Night (NBC, Wednesday 8-8:30)

I always like Christina Applegate and Maya Rudolf (Will Arnett too), but this seemed like a sitcom from the early 1990s.  Someone thought it was cool to have a working wife and stay-at-home dad trying to raise a new baby.  But that's not the novelty it once was.  In subsequent episodes, many of the elements that made the pilot funny (and it was funny) will no longer be as relevant. 

NBC is reportedly re-rooling the pilot and the show to focus more on Maya Rudolf's character, which seems like a good idea.  But usually when a network starts fooling with a show at this stage of the game, it's not a promising sign.

 

Primetime TV Report - The Best New Series Pilots

My friends and family think it's cool that I get to see all the network pilots a few months before they air.  And it actually is pretty cool - although it's not always fun to have to watch 30 new shows over a few days time.

I've now seen all the new series pilots - the good, the bad, and the ugly.  I've broken them into several self-explanatory categories.  No need to talk about all of them, but here are the best, worst, most surprising, most disappointing, and most interesting of the group.

Best New Comedies - New Girl (FOX), Last Man Standing (ABC), Up All Night (NBC), 2 Broke Girls (CBS).

New Girl gets the plum spot on FOX's schedule, between Glee and Raising Hope.  The audience to both of those shows should like this one.

Last Man Standing brings Tim ALlen back to his Home Improvement time slot on ABC.  He hasn't lost a step.

Up All Night stars Christina Applegate, Maya Rudolph, and Will Arnett.  They gel well.

2 Broke Girls had a very funny pilot, but I'm not sure it can be maintained on a weekly basis.

One caveat - New Girl, Up All Night, and 2 Broke Girls were funny largely because of specific events that happened in their pilots.  By episode 2 or 3 they could be substantially different shows.  Need to see a couple more episodes.

Worst New Comedies - Free Agents (NBC), I Hate My Teenage Daughter (FOX), Whitney (NBC).

Free Agents is the worst comedy pilot I've ever seen.  It was one long crude joke, and completely inappropriate for 8:30pm.  The stars have no chemistry, the writing was bad, and I'm really surprised NBC would put this on its schedule.

I Hate My Teenage Daughter made me not only hate the daughters, but the parents as well.  If it remains on too long, I may start hating Wednesdays.

Whitney has an appealing lead (Whitney Cummings), but the writing in the pilot was just plain bad - not a promising sign going forward.

Best New Dramas - Terra Nova (FOX), Pan Am (ABC).

Terra Nova's pilot is excellent.  The main question is, does it have the makings of a great miniseries, or a great weekly series.  They need to make sure the special effects enhance the stories, not the other way around.  Has a good cast.

Pan Am has a real good ensemble cast, and it seems to have numerous potential storylines on tap.

I also liked Prime Suspect (NBC), Once Upon a Time (ABC), Person of Interest (CBS), and Hart of Dixie(CW).

Most Disappointing Drama Pilots - Charlie's Angels (ABC), The Playboy Club (NBC).

The Angels in Charlie's Angels have no charisma, I didn't like the new Bosley, and the whole pilot seemed kind of cheesy.

The Playboy Club was nice to look at, but surprisingly no fun to watch.  Makes you realize how hard it is to do a stylized 1960s period piece like Mad Men (although Pan Am seemed to get it right).

My colleague, Shari Anne Brill and I are currently working on our Primetime Fall Preview, which will have a more in-depth new season analysis, as well as comprehensive analyses of the video broadcast and cable landscape.  It will be roughly 200 pages, and will be available from Baseline in a few weeks.

Primetime TV Upfront Report - Rating the Comedy Pilots

Shari and I are currently working on our Primetime Fall Preview Edition, and are watching all the new series pilots.  While our friends and family always think it's cool that we get all the pilots sent to us by the networks, it's not as fun as it seems to have to watch 25 new shows in a two or three day period.  For every one that makes us sit up and take notice, there are three or four that make us itch (or is it twitch?).

I've now seen all the comedy pilots, and am starting to watch the dramas.  Here's my initial take on the comedies.

In my opinion, the best new comedy pilot is Last Man Standing.  It was funny and it should hold up from week to week.  Tim Allen hasn't lost a beat since he succeeded in the same Tuesday 8pm time slot with Home Improvement.

Other new comedy pilots that were funny and have potential as series are ABC's Suburgatory (Wednesday 8:30), CBS's 2 Broke Girls (Monday 8:30) and How to be a Gentleman (Thursday 8:30), NBC's Up All Night (with Christina Applegate, Will Arnett and Maya Rudolph - Wednesday 8pm), and FOX's New Girl  (with Zoey Deschanel - Tuesday 9pm).  Of these, New Girls and Up All Night were the standouts.

The worst comedy pilots were NBC's Free Agents (which may be the worst comedy pilot I've ever seen) and Whitney (Whitney Cummings is appealing, but the writing was horrible).  That Free Agents was even placed on the schedule makes us wonder about NBC's overall comedy development.  It's offensive, the writing was bad, there was nothing but sexual innuendo and crude jokes (in an 8:30pm show!), and the stars have no chemistry.  I was embarrassed to watch it with my 12-year-old son in the room.

In our Primetime Fall Preview Edition, available from Baseline in July, we provide a much more in-depth analysis of both broadcast and cable programming.

TV Shows You Should Watch - Part 3

In Part 1 of TV Shows You Should Watch, I highlighted The Good Wife (CBS), The Closer (TNT), Sons of Anarchy (FX), Modern Family (ABC), Fringe (FOX), The Middle (ABC), The Walking Dead (AMC), and Leverage (TNT).

In Part 2, I added NCIS (CBS), Glee (FOX), Damages(DirecTV), Southland (TNT), In Plain Sight (USA), Army Wives (Lifetime), Human Target (FOX), and Criminal Minds (CBS).

Here are some more TV shows I recommend...

Rizzoli & Isles (TNT - Mon. 10-11)

Angie Harmon is tough-as-nails Boston Detective Jane Rizzoli, Sasha Alexander is the more reserved and "girlie" medical examiner Maura Isles.  Complete opposites and good friends, they solve crimes together.  Didn't think I'd like it, but I was hooked from the first episode.  Excellent supporting cast.  Debuted as one of the highest-rated ad-supported cable series ever, and its audience has held up well.

Flashpoint (CBS - Fri. 10-11)

This has become a summer staple for CBS over the past three years.  Excellent ensemble cast led by Enrico Colantoni, Hugh Dillon, and Amy Jo Johnson.  The show centers around an elite tactical unit that handles extreme situations (hostage taking, bomb threats, heavily armed criminals, etc.).  The drama delves into various team member's personal crises, which they often have to put on the backburner in order to respond to the city's crisis of the moment and save lives - which they do just as much by psychological means as by action.  But there is a lot of action.

Mad Men (AMC - Sun. 10-11)

It wasn't that long ago that people drank and smoked all the time, men treated women like sex objects, women were frustrated by the lack of professional opportunities, gays had to stay mostly in the closet, and business moved at a snail's pace (no conputers, cell phones, or even fax machines).  Watching this past world (no matter how exaggerated) start to shift from 1950s to 1960s sensibilities is  fascinating.  At once epic, tragic, and hopeful.  The entire cast shines, as if they were born to play these roles.

Men of a Certain Age (TNT - Mon. 10-11) 

With a cast led by Ray Romano, Andre Braugher, and Scott Bakula, expectations were high.  I'd say they are living up to them.  Combines drama and comedy very well.  If you are a man of a certain age, or live with one (or even know one), you should check this one out.  Also has one of the best opening theme songs in years.

 Detroit 1-8-7 (ABC - Tue. 10-11)

This had the potential to be the next great cop show.  Michael Imperioli finally found the post-Sopranos role that suited him.  The ensemble cast is excellent.  It was hurt by the confusing name, incompatible lead-in (Dancing With the Stars), and tough competition.  And, of course, it was barely promoted (other than on ABC's own incompatible programming), so most of its potential audience never heard of it.  If by some miracle ABC renews it for the fall, it's worth watching. 

 

 

 

TV Shows You Should Watch - Part 2

 In Part 1 of TV Shows You Should Watch, I highlighted The Good Wife (CBS), The Closer (TNT), Sons of Anarchy (FX), Modern Family (ABC), Fringe (FOX), The Middle (ABC), The Walking Dead (AMC), and Leverage (TNT).

Here are some more...

NCIS (CBS - Tue. 8-9)

Leroy "Jethro Gibbs (Mark Harmon), Anthony "Tony" DiNozzo (Michael Weatherly), Ziva David (Cote de Pablo), Abigail "Abby" Sciuto (Pauley Perrette), Timothy McGee (Sean Murray), and Dr. Donald "Ducky" Mallard (David McCallum) form an ensemble team that shines week after week.  The cast gels perfectly, and all are adept at going from drama to humor on a dime.  Long ago surpassed all the CSI's as top-notch entertainment.

Glee (FOX - Tue. 8-9)

I remain torn about how I feel about Glee.  On one hand, the cast is great and the singing and dancing are often breathtaking. 

 

It's one of my 11-year old son's favorite shows, however, which makes me feel very uncomfortable (although I usually watch it with him and discuss some of what's going on in the show).  The messages is sends to kids and teens are horrible - namely that bullying has no consequences and the authorities at school don't even try to address the topic, drugs, including steroids have no lasting negative impact, multiple sex partners in high school are commonplace, etc.

The central character is a selfish *itch, who had the previous Glee club teacher fired by falsely accusing him of molesting a male student.  More recently, she sent a potential rival to a crack house, fooling her into thinking it was where an audition would be held.  Of course she suffers no consequences from her actions.

Am I just being a stick in the mud?  Maybe.  I still love the show and enjoy watching it even in reruns.  But I've started screening it before letting my son watch.

Southland (TNT - Tue. 10pm)

This is the first potentially great cop show since NYPD Blue went off the air.  A day in the life of its diverse police ensemble can go from monotonously routine to chaotic and life-threatening in an instant.  I hope it finds an audience and gets to further flesh out its characters - i want to get to know them better.  Watch it after the kids are asleep.   

Damages(DirecTV Ch. 101 - Wed, 10-11)

The intensity is not based on any hard action or mythology, but rather from the force of the actors and writing - not to mention the excellent, unorthodox casting (Ted Danson, Lily Tomlin, Martin Short, william Hurt).  John Goodman is slated for season 4.  Glenn Close is brilliant as cut-throat attorney, Patty Hewes, and Rose Byrne, as her legal assistant/enemy, Ellen Parsons, is an effective counterweight. Not for everyone.  It takes a fair amount of concentration to keep on top of what's going on - especially with the flash-forwards it's been using for the past two seasons.  As intelligent as it is intense.  Never got the ratings needed to survive on FX, but DirecTV saved it.  No kids please. 

In Plain Sight (USA - Wed. 10pm)

One of the higher rated original cable series, largely overlooked by the press.  Mixes drama and humor to great effect.  Mary McCormack is yet another strong female lead on cable. I actually find the stuff with her sister and mom a bit annoying, but it does add dimension to her character - professionally (as a U.S. Marshall handling people in the Witness-Protection Program) tough and in control, personal life a mess.  The plots are regularly unbelievable, but the cast seems to know that and there's a "what the heck is happening now?" demeanor they play up very effectively.  The bottom line?  It won't stay with you the way The Closer might, but it's quite entertaining.

 Human Target (FOX - Fri. 8pm)

Mark Valley portrays a cross between Jason Bourne and The Equalizer. Non-stop (and relatively bloodless) action violence that is fun to watch but you forget about almost immediately.  The key is that it's a lot of fun to watch.  I think it's OK for kids 10 and older, but you may think 12 or 13.  They added in a female boss this season.  This is the type of last gasp move networks often make right before a series is canceled.  Fortunately, it hasn't hurt the show at all.  But if more people don't start watching, it won't be back next season.

Army Wives (Lifetime - Sun. 10pm)

Sometimes sappy (it is Lifetime, after all), but a superb female-driven cast (Kim Delaney, Catherine Bell, Sally Pressman, Brigid Brannagh, Wendy Davis) focusing on the lives of those with a family member going back and forth to war.  Good show for couples to watch together.

Criminal Minds (CBS - Wed. 9-10)

Focusing on the criminal mind, more than the crime itself, this is another in CBS's seemingly endless spin on the procedural police drama.  I've come to like this show late in the game, as I saw the pilot, but none of the first few season episodes.  I was actually doing a research project and had to watch several episodes on CBS, A&E, and ION, and got hooked.  I've been watching it a few times a week on ION since, to catch up.  It has a completely different feel from the more flippant NCIS's, or more action-oriented CSI's.  And this one is definitely not for kids.

TV Shows You Should Watch - Part 1

Few would call today the Golden Age of Television, but I think there are as many great TV series on now as ever.  It's just that there are so many channel choices available these days, that everyone is not watching the same shows anymore (as they did in the heydays of All in The Family, Cosby, E.R., and even Seinfeld).

The advent of the high-profile original scripted cable drama, ushered in by The Shield in 2002, and becoming more mainstream with The Closer's debut in 2005 (which has been followed by a string of new cable dramas successes that have continued through this season), has resulted in splintering the audience.  Many of these, which include such series as Sons of Anarchy and The Walking Dead, do not appeal to as broad an audience as many broadcast network shows, but their viewers tend to be more fiercely loyal.

This is not to say that all the best series are on cable.  Both broadcast and ad-supported cable networks have top notch offerings.  These are some that are worth checking out - you should be able to determine based on my comments which ones might be best suited for your particular tastes.

 

The Good Wife (CBS Tue. 10-11)

Juliana Marguiles is superb as Alicia Florrick, the wronged wife and compassionate but don't f**k with me attorney.  Not many actresses could pull off playing a character who is so vulnerable yet at the same time so seemingly cool and in control.  Chris Noth is perfect as her imperfect, former D.A. husband who's trying to resurrect both his career and her trust. 

Archie Punjabi is a standout as her law firm's sexy, enigmatic, tough-as-nails private investigator, whose sexual orientation jumps back and forth from week-to-week.  Christine Baransky and Josh Charles are excellent as the firm's partners (he has a history with Alicia).  Alicia's kids also seem unusually realistic for a TV show.

The mix of workplace/courtroom intrigue, politics, and home life has so far been just right.  A great show for couples to watch together after the kids go to bed.  Has not had a weak episode since its debut.  Deserves a top spot on your DVR.

 

The Closer (TNT Mon. 9-10)

Started out as the highest rated regular series in basic-cable history, and put TNT on the map as one of the premier places for high-quality drama.  Excellent mix of drama and humor in each episode.  In Deputy Chief of Police, Brenda Leigh Johnson, Kyra Sedgwick (and the writers) has created one of the greatest female characters in TV history.  And while she deservedly receives much of the credit for the show's success, the great ensemble cast can't be overlooked - particularly the interplay between G.W. Bailey and Tony Denison.  Have to wait for the summer for the final season.  It will be missed.  If you've never seen it, get the DVDs.

 

Sons of Anarchy (FX Tue. 10-11)

One of those rare shows that can suck you in and get you rooting for people who are essentially bad guys - because they are a family and are taking on even badder guys.  Closest thing to The Sopranos we've seen on ad-supported television. 

Katy Sagal's nuanced and extraordinary performance as Gemma Teller Morrow, remains one of the most egregious Emmy oversights ever.  Ron Perlman is excellent as her husband Clay Morrow, the head of the outlaw motorcycle club, and Charlie Hunnam is great as her son Jax Teller, the center of the show - and its equally violent conscience.

I consider myself expert at figuring out what's about to happen, but Sons has consistently surprised me.  The sex and violence quotient is high, often startlingly so.  Not for the squeamish.  But if you like dramas that push the boundaries of TV content, with hard-edged and complex characters that keep you on the edge of your seat, put the kids to bed and enjoy.  Definitely worth a prominent spot on your DVR.  If you haven't seen it yet, get the first three seasons on DVD.

 

 Modern Family (ABC Wed. 9-9:30)

This was the first comedy in years that actually made me laugh when I screened it before its debut.  It's been consistently hilarious since. Now, in the middle of its second season, it hasn't missed the mark once - extremely rare for a sitcom.

The show has something for everyone.  Ed O'Neill is brilliant as Jay, the patriarch of three inter-related families.  His wife Gloria (Sofia Vergara) and son Manny (Rico Rodriguez II) are also excelelnt.  The central family is really homemaker mom Claire (Julie Bowen), Jay's daughter, and her husband, self-professed cool dad Phil (Ty Burrell).  Claire's gay brother Mitchell (Jesse Tyler Ferguson) and his partner Cameron (Eric Stonestreet) round out this modern family.

This is truly a great ensemble comedy, and one of the very few that's perfect for the entire family (if they're all at least 10).

 

Fringe (FOX Fri. 9-10)

Often uneven, and the first season sometimes felt like a "what's the grossest way we can use a virus to kill people" movie of the week.  But the series has hit its stride this season with its alternate universe storyline.  Tension mounts by the minute, which goes way beyond just the sexual tension between its very appealing stars, Anna Torv (as Olivii Dunham) and Joshua Jackson (as Peter Bishop).  John Noble (another Emmy snub) shines as the formerly institutionalized Fringe scientist, Walter Bishop (Peter's father) - at once noble, brilliant, tragic, charming, and creepy.  Lance Reddick, Blair Brown, and Jasika Nicole round out the excellent cast.  Not for everyone, but if you liked The X-Files it's worth a look.

 

 The Middle (ABC Wed. 8-8:30)

  This might be the most under-rated show on television.  It hasn't received nearly the press of its Modern Family companion, nor achieved nearly the ratings of CBS's Monday comedies.  But it is one of the best family comedies in years.  The parents (Patricia Heaton and Neil Flynn) are a delight, and their three kids, Axl, Sue, and Brick are priceless - and so much more realistic than you ever see in sitcoms.  If you have kids you'll enjoy watching this with them.

 

The Walking Dead (AMC Sun. 10-11)

Who would have thought a series based on a cult graphic novel about the aftermath of a zombie apocalypse would be so good?  But it is.  The story revolves around a small group of survivors who journey through a desolate United States, alternately hiding from and fighting the shuffling hordes of the walking dead, dubbed "walkers."

 

 Leverage (TNT Sun. 9-10)

Timothy Hutton (Nathan, the planner and team leader), Gina Bellman (Sophie, the grifter), Aldis Hodge (Hardison, the computer whiz), Christian Kane (Eliot, the martial arts and weapons expert), and Beth Riesgraf (Parker, the thief, cat burglar, and safe cracker) gel perfectly as a team of former crooks who now run elaborate cons to take down the bad guys and pay back the victims.  Nothing deep here, just an extemely entertaining hour.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New TV Season - What's Wrong WIth Some of these New Shows

With the November sweeps over, I am continuing to follow the broadcast networks' lead, and am running repeats and specials through December.  Some repeats will include new, previously unseen footage.

I've now watched all of the new shows I wanted to like at least three times (I generally feel, particularly for dramas, that you need to see a couple of episodes beyond the pilot to get a handle on a new series).

Here are some thoughts on some of the shows I was hoping I would like, but are so mediocre, they're just not worth my time to even record on my DVR.  These are, of course, just my personal opinions, so feel free to disagree.  That's what makes our country so great.

The Event (NBC Mon. 9-10pm) - Sorry, I tried.  I just can't watch this anymore. They clearly can't seem to decide whether they want to be the next 24 or the next Lost, and are nowhere close to either.  Jason Ritter simply does not have the charisma of Keifer Sutherland or Matthew Fox - although his acting is not as stiff as the rest of the cast.

Someone probably thought the constant flashbacks to "three days earlier" or "four hours earlier" were cool.  But they've simply become confusing devices that impede the storytelling.  I'm usually good at following what's going on, but I was so confused by the pilot, I only tuned into episode 2 because I needed to evaluate the program.

The pilot got decent sampling, but each subsequest episode has declined.  So maybe a lot of other folks agree with me.

Chase  (NBC Mon. 10-11pm) - While there's nothing horrible about this series focusing on a unit of U.S. Marshals led by Kelli Giddish, there's not much to recommend it either.  It seems as though they've looked for actors who have played the worst bad guys they could find in other shows, and hired them all to play vicious, cold-blooded killers here.  We've seen it all before, and done better.  A show like this should be more suspenseful.  It loses a share point or two from its lead-in.

No reason to watch this since the much better Hawaii Five-0 is on CBS at the same time.

Outlaw (NBC Fri 10-11pm) - Aside from the absurdity of a Supreme Court Justice resigning because he feels he can do more by being a defense attorney, or the absurdity of someone with an obvious gambling problem ever making it through the vetting process to get on the Supreme Court in the first place...Jimmy Smits has never been able to carry a series (although I'm not sure why).  Again, not horrible, just not worth my time to watch.  Seems like NBC was setting it up to fail, placing it on Friday following Dateline, and opposite the new CBS Tom Selleck police drama, Blue Bloods.

Outsourced

(NBC Thu. 9:30-10pm) - Why NBC thought anyone in today's economy would find humor in a show about outsourcing is a good question.  A better one is why is NBC is not embarrassed to have a workplace comedy with no cleverness or the same type of smart laughs you find in 30 Rock and The Office, both of which lead-into this offensive drivel.  On the other hand, my 11-year old son thinks it's kind of funny.

 

New TV Season Officially Begins - Will Buzz Matter?

During the past decade, roughly 30 percent of the series with the most pre-season buzz became successful.  That's a slightly lower percentage than the average new series success rate over the same period (I have an in-depth analysis of this in my Primetime TV Insight report, available from Baseline).

There are, of course, several reasons for so-called buzz having little impact on a program's eventual success or failure.  Among them...

The media tends to focus more on shows with major stars attached. But we've seen time and again that shows make stars, stars don't make shows.

Internet and comic-con buzz often highlights sci-fi series or shows with former sci-fi stars attached (remember when the buzz-meisters were all predicting Bionic Woman would be a hit). These types of shows are hard to make work on broadcast (for every Lost there are half a dozen Flash Forwards).

Much of the pre-season buzz is from people who have not seen the pilot, and have no idea whether the show is actually any good.

Except for CW, the average median age of the broadcast networks' viewers are between 45 and 55. This is not necessarily the same audience that is buzzing the most about new shows online. We have seldom seen, for example, CBS shows get as much pre-season buzz as other network shows, but it has certainly had the most new series success over the past several years.

The impact of social media such as Facebook or Twitter is less clear at this point. There does seem to be a positive affect on big-event programming. But the impact of social media discussions is probably greater for shows that are already on the air than for new shows.

What shows have the most pre-season buzz this season?  Hard to say, since there really hasn't been as much buzz as usual.  But if I had to pick the new series with the most pre-season buzz, I'd say, CBS's Hawaii Five-0, NBC's The Event, FOX's Lonestar, and ABC's No Ordinary Family. 

Let's see not only how they do, but whether other shows emerge to outshine them.