Assessing The Market For Jose Reyes

I hear from Met fans a lot via texting and Twitter and they all ask me the same thing--will Jose Reyes be back? I have never wavered in my viewpoint from early in the year and my sense is he will be back. That being said, the process has barely begun and as with any business deal, a myriad of factors can either catalyze the process or slow it down. For example, does the Ryan Howard injury make it more or less likely the Phillies might take a run at Jose? From everything I am hearing, the Phillies desperately want to keep Ryan Madsen who is a free agent and have to deal with Jimmy Rollins as well. Those talks with Rollins and Madsen could have a big impact on any pursuit of Reyes especially if, for instance, Rollins might cost less than they thought or Madsen cost more than they expected.

Then there is the CC Factor--if he opts out of his Yankee contract, I would expect the Red Sox to enter the sweepstakes which could preclude them from getting serious with Reyes. My hunch is they will look for pitching first even if CC is not on the open market and the Crawford 7 year deal might make them reticent to tip their toes into the Reyes sweepstakes. As far as the San Francisco Giants are concerned, my sources tell me that they would rather re-sign Beltran than go for Reyes for a few reasons. First of all, they traded one of the top pitching prospects out there for Beltran and secondly on the heels of that trade, to then lose 2 draft picks to the Mets might make them skiddish. In addition, they have to think about re-upping Matt Cain at some point whom I believe is a more important piece for them considering their team is built around pitching.

So, I consider the Red Sox, Phils, and Giants as long shots but I do think the Mets will get competition from both the Nationals and Brewers and I expect both teams to be serious bidders. In the case of the Nationals, they have some good young pitching both in the rotation and in the bullpen and could use another bat at the top of the order. Reyes could enhance their OBP which was really poor last year. The only fly in the ointment here is the Jayson Werth contract was criticized heavily and he did not really perform up to expectations and so if they do commit to huge dollars, it might be for a big RBI bat like Prince Fielder. Which brings us to the Brewers.

Milwaukee had a great season getting to the sport's Final Four with improved pitching and 2 absolute superstars in Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Their payroll was around $93 million last year and I get the sense they might increase it to a little over $100 million this year. The big question is will they commit that money to Prince Fielder or more properly do they have enough to foot the bill? If not, they might enter the Reyes sweepstakes especially if Fielder goes to the Nats. Now, in Fielder's case there is always the chance a team like the Cubs might swoop in which case keeps Reyes in play for both the Nats and the Brewers. The problem for guys like Fielder and even Pujols to a certain extent, is first base is a position that most of the high spending teams like the Phils, Red Sox, and Yankees have great first basemen on the roster already committed to heavy dollars.

I do see this as a game between the Brewers, Mets, and Nationals with the Red Sox, Giants, and Phils as long shots. However,I do firmly believe that the Mets are the favorites at this early stage but I must warn you it is still very early and things in the off-season can move as fast as a Jose Reyes triple.

Why Doesn't Anyone Care About The World Series?

I walk around the streets of New York and nobody cares about the World Series.

It is sad to see, because if you love baseball, you have to love this series. I know the Mets had a rotten year and the Yankees made a quick exit in the first round but this Texas/St. Louis series has some juice. It is a shame New Yorkers don't see it.

You know we all say the New York baseball fan is smarter and more perceptive than any other fans in the country, but if the truth be told we're as provincial as any of those other fans. When our baseball teams are out, we shut down and I guess what that means is we are really not baseball fans. The NY football fan still had interest in the Super Bowl after the Jets were bumped by the Steelers and the NY NBA fans were certainly mesmerized by Heat/Mavericks last year, but if we don't see Yanks, Mets or Phils or Red Sox (only because we hate those last two teams) we shut down.

But this is an interesting series and one that will go the distance. It features a team that had to inch their way into the post-season party and one who is returning to the Fall Classic in a year most thought the Yanks, Red Sox, Rays, and even the Verlander-led Tigers were better bets than then they were. The Texas Rangers are an interesting case because Nolan Ryan had to endure losing Cliff Lee to the Phillies and instead of brooding about it, they went out and signed Adrian Beltre - making an awesome lineup deeper. When you consider that the core bats of Beltre, Cruz, Hamilton, Young, and Kinsler are tough enough, try pitching against a lineup that features a sixth bat in Mike Napoli that crushed 30 homers. Quite simply, it is the most potent lineup in baseball and has the Rangers on the brink of their first-ever World Championship. Texas could actually get by with less starting pitching because of their high-octane offense coupled with a very efficient bullpen that was heavily reinforced with the addition of Mike Adams at the trading deadline.

Standing in their way is the St. Louis Cardinals who also endured losing their ace when Adam Wainwright got hurt in spring training. Couple that with a bullpen that stumbled through most of the summer, the Cardinals were put to bed by the experts in early August, but a slumping Braves team left the door open a crack which the Redbirds kicked in during the season's final week. And oh by the way, they had to beat Cliff Lee in Game 2 and then Roy Halladay in a Game 5 do or die matchup in Philly and then proceeded to take 2-of-3 in Milwaukee where the Brewers were nearly unbeatable this year. And like the Rangers, the Cardinals made some under the radar moves at the deadline obtaining both Rafael Furcal (who saved Game 5 with a defensive gem) and Octavio Dotel who got some real big outs for Tony LaRussa in the ALCS.

A series like this is good for baseball -- it is nice to see different teams in the mix who really had to fight to get here. So why the indifference by fans? What they tell me is it has no juice -- there is no yapping by the players, no wild predictions, these teams respect each other too much.

Is that the world we live in?

The game is not enough anymore -- the back story complete with nasty tweeting is what sells. For me, the game has always been enough and this series is a great matchup of 2 teams that have struggled to get here and that is what sports is all about -- the games that have everything on the line. Not how many twitter followers you have.

Jose Reyes #1 Mets Off-Season Priority

By Rich Coutinho
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For an organization that has now gone five seasons without a playoff appearance and possesses one of the sport's biggest payrolls, there are many challenges for the New York Mets. But the issue that Sandy Alderson must tackle first is re-signing Jose Reyes. Sure, this team has other problems like a leaky bullpen but the Reyes decision will impact greatly the path Sandy Alderson will take this off-season. And not signing Reyes could have far-reaching implications for this franchise both long-term and short-term.

I think readers of this blog know how I feel about this situation and it is not necessarily how most beat writers feel about it. Jose Reyes is as much the face of this organization as David Wright and both players are part of the solution-not part of the problem. Reyes had a great season, and aside from the two stints on the DL, his year was just about perfect. He is a game changer with the way he approaches every at-bat and the way he runs the bases. But often times we forget how good a defensive shortstop he is--in my view the best in the sport because his speed allows him to get to balls other players don't and his arm allows him to make throws others can't.

Jose and I have talked a little about next year even though he was clear he did not want to tackle the subject until after the season. But he made it crystal clear he wants to be back here next year because he loves playing here and his family loves living here. Sandy Alderson had admitted to me that he acknowledges what an important player Jose Reyes is both on the field and off the field. "The fans love him and that has to enter the equation", says Alderson. The pressure on the Mets will be enormous to sign Reyes because I could picture the criticism they would receive if they let a player go who became the first play in the team's 50 year history to win a batting title and who is still very much in the prime of his baseball career.

But ultimately I think both parties want it and this is an organization, despite the shots the media takes at it, that generally retains a player if they really want him. Mike Piazza, Al Leiter, and John Franco are examples of that fact and much like Piazza, the departure of Reyes won't happen in my opinion. If you remember the Piazza case, it is very similar to the case of Reyes in that both were having great seasons in their walk years. Both also did not want to talk contract until the season was over. Both also said they would give the Mets every opportunity in their exclusive negotiating period. Piazza told the Mets what he wanted and after a few phone calls back and forth, a deal got done BEFORE the free agency period.

What I would give Reyes is six years at $17 million per for a total of $102 million with a vesting option in year seven if he plays in an average of 150 games for the duration of the six year deal. He would deserve that seventh year if he reaches that benchmark. Is that a lot of money? You bet it is, but the simple truth is Jose Reyes deserves it because he is the best leadoff hitter in the sport and plays an important defensive position better than anyone has in the history of the franchise. Better than Buddy. Better than Ordonez. Better than anyone.

Signing him would be Step 1 towards getting back the trust from your fan base. It is an important first step for Sandy Alderson.

Let's Clear Some Stuff Up About Jose Reyes

By Rich Coutinho
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I have sat and listened to the so-called experts pontificate about the merits of Jose Reyes and whether the Mets could or should sign him. All I keep hearing is about the last game of the season and how Jose Reyes should have done this or done that. The bottom line is he led the league in both batting and triples and those facts are undeniable. In a season in which many injured Mets took many weeks to return to the lineup (some took all season) Reyes pushed his body to return and played 100% every waking moment. I'd venture to guess if the Braves or Red Sox had him, we would not be talking about their collapses and Terry Francona would still be wearing a Bosox hat. That is how valuable I think Jose is to a team.

 

Of course, Jose can not do it alone and much will depend on how Sandy Alderson reconstructs his bullpen and what the Mets get from Johan Santana in 2012. But this nonsense about Reyes in the season finale is just that -- nonsense. Aside from the people who paid their way into Citi Field, no one has a right to complain and, the last time I checked, members of the media do not pay their way into ballparks. The bottom line here is most of the media threw dirt on Jose Reyes last year saying he'd never show he could be a great player.

 

Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki had their breakout seasons. What about Jose? Well, now that he had a breakout seasons, the media has to explain away why they buried Jose Reyes and so they hang onto "this season finale nonsense". Bottom line is Jose Reyes had enough at-bats to qualify and fully understood how important winning a batting title was both to him and the Mets organization. Important to him because it enhances his "free agent" value and important to the Mets because nobody in the franchise's 50 year history had ever done it.

Football-wise, this would be like Adrian Petersen passing Frank Gore for the rushing title by a yard and then sitting out a meaningless quarter because he did not want to fall back into second if he was pinned with a 5 yard loss. It takes nothing away from Petersen and the same can be said for Reyes. This uproar has little to do with what occurred in the season's last game but more to do with the media always having the last word. You see the media kept telling us all year that Jose Reyes could not have that breakout season but he did. They told us he could not possibly command heavy dollars on the open market but he will.

 

Will that big contract be with the Mets? My guess is both sides want this and for that reason it will get done. I do not think it will be done quickly because chances are Reyes will get other bids for his services which he will entertain. But believe you me -- whomever signs Reyes will be lucky to have one of the true game changers on their roster. Now, a big dollar commitment should be scrutinized carefully and much must be considered. But at no point, will any team waste any time asking themselves if Reyes leaving the season finale after one at-bat impacts their decision. That is unless they are considering changing career paths to become a member of the media.

 

Is Reyes judged too harshly? Leave a comment below.

The Bay Day For Yankee Fans--Oh What A Shame!

I know...I know...The last person a Yankee fan wants to hear from is Rich Coutinho...noted Yankeehater but a lot of my friends are Yankee fans and as a follower of the Mets, I feel their pain today. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm elated the Yanks lost but I did feel compelled to write something about the Evil Empire's season coming to an abrupt end last night.

This is the thing about the high payroll teams in baseball--it generally gets you through the regular season grind but the short series is the great equalizer and a 5 game series is the ultimate equalizer. For the New York Yankees whose payroll is off the charts, the ALDS has been a very painful experience since 2002. When you consider the Yankees have been in 9 ALDS series since the 2001 season and have only gone 4-5 in those series and that all of those 4 series wins came against the Minnesota Twins, you really scratch your head because certainly the Yankees were better than most of those teams.

In fact, since Game #3 of the 2004 ALCS the Yankees are a very ordinary 22-23 in post-season and that includes an 11-4 post season record in their World Championship year of 2009. People will point to many factors when breaking down the latest Yankee playoff meltdown but I really believe it is a complex issue. On first glance, the hitters will get much of the blame but the bottom line here is a simple one. The one year the Yankees won the World Series their pitchers performed at a high level and although the team got creditable performances from their bullpen and a shocking lights out night from AJ Burnett, the team was relying on a rookie pitcher to get them to the finish line in a deciding Game 5. Nova should have been a #3 starter behind CC Sabathia and a second banana in the rotation. That "second guy" was supposed to be Cliff Lee and the team got real lucky with Bartolo Colon and Freddie Garcia in the regular season but the inherent problem is guys like that are generally exposed in the post-season and on a team with a payroll in the stratosphere they should not be starting any game in October.

I firmly believe this series was lost in Game #2 when the Yankees (because of a rain out) went with Freddie Garcia and instead of dropping the hammer on the Tigers, that game opened the door for them. Verlander outpitched CC in Game 3 and despite a gift from Burnett, it was too much to overcome. CC was not exactly CC in this series but that had as much to do with circumstances rather than talent--he never pitched with the proper rest but that is even more the reason to have a #2 behind CC and in front of Nova. I still think that guy could be Phillip Hughes.

Ok that is enough Yankee talk for me on this day--I must know go back to my real job of covering the Mets.

Ruben Tejada Credits Jose Reyes For His Turnaround

It is sometimes very difficult to pinpoint the exact moment a player stops being a prospect and starts being a major league-ready player but clearly Ruben Tejada had that moment during this past season. Injuries forced him to play both second base and shortstop and despite playing well, he was sent down during the season when those injured players returned simply because he had options. But Tejada never sulked-he simply worked at becoming a better player and once he returned to the big leagues, Jose Reyes was there to help him every step of the way.

"Jose taught me so many things about defense and putting yourself in the best possible position to make a play", says Tejada, "and spent so much time with both Justin Turner and myself on how to be prepared to make the right play."

Certainly, Tejada has a smoothness to his defensive game that few young players possess and has the arm strength to turn the double play in very much the same way Edgardo Alfonzo did for the Mets a decade ago. "Tejada has the knack to do that," says Alfonzo, " but more than that, he has a confidence in his defensive game that you need at this level."

It was the offensive part of his game that needed to improve and for advice on that, Tejada went to the NL Batting champion. "Reyes told me to always be aggressive at the plate", says Tejada, "but don't be foolish. I learned that with two strikes you can foul off tough pitches and maybe the next pitch will be easier to hit. And when you are ahead in the count, you must be ready to attack the ball."

When you look at the season Reyes had, that piece of advice he gave Tejada illustrates why Jose has become such a better hitter and he wanted to impart that advice to Tejada at a time when he was learning on-the job at the big league level.

So where does Tejada think he will be playing next year? Shortstop? Second Base? First and foremost, Tejada wants Reyes to stay but does not take anything for granted. "I want Jose to be here next year but whether he is or not, I have to continue to get better. Turner is a very good player and deserves playing time as well but I must be focused on making myself a better player -- getting stronger so I can hit for a high average as well as help with my glove."

The thing that impresses me most about Tejada is that he is mature beyond his years. He is a confident young player but is not afraid to ask for help and has a high degree of humility when talking about himself. I do think the Mets discovered that he is as good as any other NL second basemen defensively and a DP combo of Reyes/Tejada would really help a pitching staff that, for the most part, pitches to contact. Offensively, he is a work in progress but showed real flashes this past year in two specific areas. He was an outstanding 2 strike hitter and very good with runners in scoring position.

Clearly, Ruben Tejada is the Mets second basemen of 2012 and could be the shortstop if Jose Reyes leaves. But my sense is Jose Reyes and Ruben Tejada will be the double play combination for the Mets for years to come.

What's Tejada's role on the 2012 Mets? Leave a comment below.