New York City Weather Archive

October 2018: Started Out Like September, Ended Like It Was November

Although October wasn't far from average in terms of its overall temperature, few would think of it as average as the first eleven days of the month had temperatures comparable to the start of September followed by nearly three weeks of temperature more like early November.  Through the 11th temperatures were ten degrees above average (high/low of 75/65), then the rest of the month was about twenty degrees colder (57/45), and four degrees below average.  Another contrast was between the departure from normal of the month's average high, which was a titch below average (-0.3 degrees), and the average low, which was nearly two degrees milder than average (+1.9 degrees).  Despite it being 0.8 degrees above average, this was the chilliest October in seven years.

 

Additional points of interest:

• Similar to August and September, the difference between October's average high and low (i.e., diurnal variation) was one of the smallest on record for October - 11.6 degrees (the average is 15.4 degrees).  In the past 100 years only October 2012 had a smaller variation.

• Just a year after the latest date for a low in the 70s occurred (on 10/9) a new mark was set this year when a low of 71° (five degrees warmer than the average high for the date) was reported on the 10th.

• The month was well above average in terms of days with lows of 60° or milder (eleven).  Only October 1879 (thirteen), 2012 (warmest October on record) and 2007 had more lows of 60+.  And this October's eleven days were consecutive (Oct. 1-11), which set a new October record and included five days in a row with mean temperatures that were ten or more degrees above average.  However, despite these balmy conditions just one day, 10/10, had a high in the 80s (80°).

• During the chilly portion of the month there were a dozen days with highs in the 50s, the most since 2009 (the typical number is eight).  And the number of lows in the 30s was three, the most since 2011 (the chilliest reading was 38°).

• The high of 64° on Halloween (five degrees above average) was the month's mildest reading since 10/15 and the first Halloween to have temperatures in the 60s in five years.

• Finally, much of October's 3.59" of rain (the smallest amount in five years) came from the remnants of catastrophic hurricane Michael on 10/11-12, which brought 1.27", and a nor'easter on 10/27 that produced 1.29".  On 10/20 the year's total precipitation passed 50 inches, and by the end of the month 51.42" had been measured, which is close to two inches more than what falls in a typical year.  This ranks as the the ninth greatest amount of precipitation (since 1869) through the end of October.

Here are recaps of previous Octobers:

2017

2016

Lacking Autumn Feel, October 2017 Becomes Warmest on Record

The unseasonably mild fall weather that began in the middle of September persisted throughout October, resulting in a month that was 7.2 degrees warmer than average.  With an average high/low of 71/57 this was the warmest October on record, finishing ahead of 2007 and 1947 by 0.5 degree.  14 days were 10+ degrees above average; 19 had highs of 70° or warmer - second only to October 1947's 22; and just three had chillier than average readings.  Until the end of the month it appeared October would also be characterized by a lack of rain as less than an inch fell in the first four weeks.  However, that storyline ended on 10/29-30 when a nor'easter drenched the City with 3.28" of rain - more rain than the previous 60 days.  This was New York's biggest rainstorm in three-and-a-half years (since 4/30/14 when 4.97" fell).  Other highlights: 

 

• The record for the latest date with a low in the 70s was established and then re-established on consecutive days (10/8 and 10/9).  Interestingly, despite these tropical readings, neither day had a high in the  80s.

• The month's chilliest mean temperature occurred on 10/17, with a high/low of 58/42 (six degrees below average).  The chilliest high, 57°, occurred on Halloween.  Only two other days had lows below 60°.  The month had a dozen days with lows of 60° or warmer, tying Oct. 2007 for the most in the years since 1900.

• The three days with below average mean temperatures were widely separated - on 10/1 (three degrees below average), 10/17 (-6 degrees) and 10/31 (-2 degrees).

• The warmest stretch of the month was a seven-day period, 10/5-11, which was 14 degrees warmer than average.  Each day had a high of 77° or warmer and all seven days were 10+ degrees above average.  The average high/low of this week was 80/67, comparable to late August.

• Although it reigns as the mildest October on record, eleven other Octobers had more days with highs of 80°+ (this year's had four).  The warm days of these eleven months were balanced by cold periods that this October didn't experience.  Speaking of which, this October tied October 1984 and 1949 for the fewest days with lows below 50° - just five.

• For the first time since 1990 October was milder than May.  Typically, May is five degrees warmer but this year it was three degrees cooler.

• Finally, October joined four other months that, since the beginning of 2015, became the warmest on record: Feb. 2017, Dec. 2015, Nov. 2015 and Sept. 2015.  And five other months became the second or third warmest.  (An outlier was Feb. 2015, which was the third coldest on record.)

 

 

 

 

 

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October 2016 - 16th Month In A Row With Above Average Temperatures

The first half of October 2016 was uneventful, with average temperatures and little rainfall (0.78" thru 10/16).  Then an out-of-the blue, three-day warm spell occurred Oct.17-19, with each day's high topping 80° (by contrast, the first half of the month had just three days in the 70s, none higher than 75°).  This was only the third time in the past 100 years that October had three or more days in the 80s after Oct. 15 (the other two Octobers were in 1963 and 1947).  The warmest of these days, Oct. 19, had a record high of 85°.  (One week later the temperature dropped to 38°.)  Following this touch of summer, two rainstorms in a six-day period brought 1.40" (10/21-22) and 1.41" on (10/27) - the rainiest stretch since three rainstorms delivered 3.42" during the last week of July.  Finally, on 10/30 the temperature climbed to 76° one day after a low of 39° (but Halloween's high would be twenty-two degrees chillier). 

 

All in all, the month was 1.9 degrees milder than average, making this the sixteenth month in a row with above average temperatures, building on the record streak set in September when the fifteenth month in a row occurred (breaking the previous record of 14 months set in 2011-2012).  This was also the seventh October in a row that was milder than average.

 

    

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October's First Autumn Chill

I don't know about you, but I find adjusting to the season's first chilly temperatures in the fall a more difficult transition than adjusting to warm weather in the springtime.  In the fall of 2015 the temperature fell to 35° on the morning of Oct. 19, which was the earliest it was this chilly since 1976, when the low on the same date was 34°.  Mornings in the 30s in October occur infrequently in New York City, with a typical October seeing just two such days.  The average date for the first low in the 30s is Oct. 23.  It's happened as early as Sept. 30 (in 1912) and as late as Nov. 15 (1938).  On average, October's coldest reading is 38°, with the coldest being 28° in 1936.  The mildest chilly reading, 45°, occurred in 1971 and 1946 (more recently, October 2004's chilliest reading was 44°). 

 

The greatest number of lows in the 30s has been nine, in 1925.  One in eight Octobers have had lows of 32° or colder; however, the last time it happened was in 1988 (the coldest temperature in recent years was 33° in 2011).  At the other end of the temperature spectrum, one in four Octobers have had no readings in the 30s (most recently in 2017, 2014 and 2013).  Here are some other observations:

 

• Two periods have had considerably more 30-degree days than other years.  The years between 1922-1940 averaged 3.9 30-degree days in October.  This followed the years 1910-1921, which averaged only 1.4 such days.  Then there were the years between 1964-1988, which averaged 3.2 chilly lows; since then the average has been half that, 1.6.

• October 1974 and 1925 were noteworthy for having three days in a row with lows of 32°  or colder.  And October 1940 and 2011 distinguished themselves by having five days in a row with lows in the 30s. 

• The most consecutive years with Octobers that had no readings below 40° is three: 1994-1995-1996.

 

 

• The second latest date for the first reading in the 30s, Nov. 13, 1946, was sandwiched between two of the earliest dates for this occurrence - Oct. 1, 1947 and Oct. 4, 1945.

• After having the earliest temperature in the 30s on record, Sept. 30 in 1912, October had none.

• Finally, there have been two high temperatures in the 30s in October: on Oct. 26, 1962 (39°) and on Oct. 30, 1925 (38°).

 

 

 

 

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Today in New York Weather History: October 17

 

1938

Today's high was a sizzling 90°, the latest date on record for a 90-degree reading - a record that still stands.  This high was 27 degrees above average.

 

2014

This was the tenth day in the past five weeks to have a high of 71°.  On the first day with this high, 9/14, the reading was four degrees below average, but when the mercury reached 71° today it was eight above average.

 

2016

After nine days in a row with highs in the seasonable 60s, today's high jumped to 81°, the first 80-degree reading since 9/23, and the first reading in the 80s in October in three years. This was also the 100th day this year to have a high of 80° or warmer, just the seventh year to reach this threshold.  It came a year after the record for the most 80-degree days was set - 114.

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Autumn Warm Spells - When Summer Keeps Hangin' On

Although the general public often refers to warm spells in the fall as "Indian Summer," most occur before the first frost arrives (which, compared to the suburbs, comes weeks later to Manhattan/Central Park).  This analysis goes back to 1950 and looks at warm spells that have occurred mostly in October and November (with some beginning in late September).  For my purposes I focused on those that were at least four days in length.

 

 

LENGTHIEST

Two-thirds of the years since 1950 have had warm spells of four or more days (including the past seven years, 2010 thru 2016).  Sixteen years had two or more, with 1953 experiencing four.  There have been ten warm spells that lasted ten days or more, the most recent being in the autumn of 2006.  The lengthiest was twenty-one days, which has occurred twice, in 1959 and 1984.

 

MOST ABOVE AVERAGE

There have been thirty-nine warm spells in autumn that averaged ten degrees above average or more (based on daily mean temperature).  The five-day heat wave of Sept. 22-26, 1970 was the most above average, +18 degrees, with four of the five days experiencing highs in the 90s. 

 

LENGTHIEST AUTUMN WARM SPELLS
(SINCE 1950)
		# of	Average		Degrees
Year	Dates	Days	High	Low	Above
1959	Sept 21-Oct 11	21	81	65	+11
1984	Oct 11-31	21	70	57	+ 8
1973	Sept 27-Oct 15	19	74	57	+ 6
1995	Oct 2-14	13	76	58	+ 7
1986	Sept 23-Oct 4	12	79	64	+ 8
1979	Nov 18-28	11	65	52	+14
1994	Oct 30-Nov 9	11	69	52	+ 9
1990	Oct 6-15	10	80	65	+13
2006	Nov 8-17	10	63	53	+10
1970	Oct 6-15	10	74	60	+ 9
WARM SPELLS WITH GREATEST DEPARTURE
FROM AVERAGE
		# of	Average		Degrees
Year	Dates	Days	High	Low	Above
1970	Sept 22-26	5	90	72	+18
1950	Oct 29-Nov 2	5	79	58	+17
1979	Oct 20-23	4	81	65	+16
1991	Nov 19-23	5	67	54	+16
1954	Oct 10-15	6	82	64	+15
1961	Nov 3-6	4	73	59	+15
1963	Oct 24-27	4	79	57	+15
1979	Nov 18-28	11	65	52	+14
1971	Oct 26-Nov 3	9	72	60	+14
1975	Nov 2-10	9	72	57	+14
2007	Oct 3-9	7	82	66	+14

 

 

 

 

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80-Degree Weather in April and October

On average, temperatures reach the 80s only one or two times in April and even less in October.  Interestingly, despite the higher likelihood in April, its average high temperature is a few degrees cooler than October's.  In the years between 1970 and 2015, April had nearly 50% more 80 and 90-degree days (65 vs. 47 days).  However, this wide disparity didn't start until 2000.  Between 1970 and 1999 the two months were relatively close (35 days in the 80s in April vs. 31 in October), but since 2000 April has had 30 such days while October has lagged behind with 16.

 

 

The greatest number of 80-degree days to occur in April is five, which happened twice, in 1985 and 2002.  October 1990 had six 80-degree days and five in 1995 and 2007. The most years in a row without an 80-degree temperature being reported in April is three; the same holds true with October.  However, while the most consecutive years with 80-degree readings in October is three, April, has had a streak of thirteen years (2001-2013).

 

 

Since 1970 thirteen of April's days above 80 degrees have been in the 90s, but there have been no such days in October.  The closest the temperature has gotten to 90° in October was on Oct. 22, 1979 when the high reached 88°.  (The last time a 90-degree temperature occurred in October was in 1941.) 

 

 

Finally, there have been ten 80-degree days before April 1, but just one after November 1.  (March and November totals aren't included in this analysis.)

 

 

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New York Weather History: October (1970 - 2018)

Highlights:  The high winds and storm surge of hurricane Sandy brought NYC to a standstill on Oct. 29, 2012; record-setting early snowfall on Oct. 29, 2011; three weeks of flooding rains in 2005 between Oct. 8-25; Game 6 of 1986 World Series (Oct. 27) and Game 1 of 1996 World Series rained out (Oct. 19); the "Perfect Storm" nor'easter of Halloween 1991; 88° on Oct. 22, 1979; October 2016 was only the third to have three days in the 80s after 10/15; the latest date for a low in the 70s (10/10) occurred in 2018, one year after it the latest 70 on 10/9.

 

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Today in New York Weather History: Halloween (October 31)

 

1933

Today's high of 76° was the warmest reading since 10/1 and occurred less than a week after there were two days with morning lows of 32°.

1946

Today's weather was an absolute treat as the temperature soared to a record 81°.  This followed yesterday's record high of 82°.

1947

Today's chilly high of 47° was the first day this month with a high below 60°.  Ironically, 10/1 had the month's first, and only, low in the 30s (today's low was 44°).

1956

2.41" of rain fell, making this the rainiest Halloween on record (3.30" rain was measured at LaGuardia Airport).  And although the bulk of the rain occurred between 10AM and 3PM, when 1.74" was measured, rain was still falling in the evening hours (0.33" was measured between 6-10PM).  Until today October had received just 1.20" of rain.

1972

Partly cloudy and chilly with a high/low of 48/35, eleven degrees below average.  When the kiddies were out at 7PM ringing doorbells and collecting their treats the temperature was a brisk 42°.  This was an appropriate end to the most below average October (-4.8°) since 1925.

1974

A very chilly October (4.6° below average) ended on a mild note with a high/low of 70/60, 11 degrees above average.  This was the only day with a low of 60° or milder.  At peak trick-or-treat time (7PM) the temperature was still a pleasant 66°.

 

1975

Sunny and cold, with a high of 50/31, eleven degrees below average.  When trick-or-treaters were out and about the temperature was a nippy 43°.  The morning low was the first temperature of 32° or colder this fall, a few weeks earlier than usual.

1984

Temperatures during the past two weeks were 10 degrees above average.  Half of the days had highs in the 70s, including today which topped out at 72° (average high is around 60) .

1988

This morning's low of 31° was the earliest sub-freezing reading since 1976.  And it matched the 31-degree low of Halloween 1975.

1989

A rainy Halloween.  Over a 12-hour period (10A-10P), 0.89" fell.  On the positive side, it was the sixth day in a row with temperatures ten degrees or more above average. Today's rain was the first to fall on this date since 1976.

1991

An intense nor'easter (made famous by Sebastian Junger's book The Perfect Storm) brought gusty 30-40 mph winds but stayed far enough off the coast that NYC received just a a trace of rain.  

 

 

1993

Rain that began yesterday morning continued thru 10PM tonight.  During this day-and-a-half of inclement weather, 1.68" of rain fell, 0.71" of which fell today.  For the entire event the rain came down hardest during the Greenwich Village Halloween Parade as 0.25" fell between 7 and 8PM.

1994

Today's high of 73° made this the warmest Halloween since 1961 (when the high reached 76°).

2007

This October tied October 1947 as the mildest on record, a whopping 7 degrees above average.  And today was one of the twenty-five days this month with above-average temps (high/low of 64/49, +five degrees).

2009

It was a very mild day (high of 71°) but light rain began falling just as the Greenwich Village Halloween parade was getting underway.  Although just 0.17" fell over five hours, this was the first rain to fall on Halloween night in 14 years.    

2012

In 2011 many of New York's suburbs postponed or cancelled trick-or-treating because of power outages caused by an unprecedented snowstorm two days earlier.  This year, most Halloween festivities were once again cancelled, this time due to power outages caused by superstorm Sandy which struck two days earlier.  And for the first time in its 39-year history Greenwich Village's Halloween parade was cancelled.  The day itself was chilly and mostly overcast, with a high of 50°. 

 

2013

The 0.06" of rain that fell from showers during lunchtime and after 10PM was just enough to keep this month from becoming one of the ten driest on record.  With 0.36", October 2013 ranked twelfth and was the driest month since August 1995 (when 0.18" was measured).

2017

As the warmest October on record came to a close today had the chilliest high temperature of the month.  But at 57° it was only two degrees chillier than average.  And it was a beautiful day with clear skies. 

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Today in New York Weather History: October 30

 

1925

Today's high of 38° was the earliest date for a maximum daily temperature in the 30s (later topped by Oct. 26, 1962).  And 0.8" of snow fell (an amount that wouldn't be topped until 1/9 when 2.3" fell).  The next day's low of 29° was also a record, and the third day in a row with a low colder than 32°.  And tomorrow would be the fourth day in a row with a low of 32° or colder (but it wasn't a record).

 

 

1989

For the sixth day in a row the area basked in temperatures in the 70s.  This stretch of days, which included four with highs of 76+, averaged 15 degrees above average.

 

 

1992

The 0.01" of rain that fell between 11PM and midnight was the first measurable rain to fall on this date since 1976.

1994

Today's high of 75°, fifteen degrees above average, was the warmest reading of the month and the mildest reading in five weeks.

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